I don't always agree with him, but I think that Álvaro Vargas Llosa is largely correct in this analysis as to what the Bush administration should do about Evo Morales being elected president of Bolivia:
Of course, whether Mr. Morales will draw closer to Mr. Chávez will in part depend on American policy toward Bolivia. And that, in turn, will depend on whether Mr. Morales decriminalizes coca growing. If he does so, the United States should not overreact, because nothing much will change. Even with the restrictions that are in place now, there are already as many plantations in Chapare as the demand for coca - and Bolivia's capacity to make cocaine from it - warrant. In any case, cocaine production and distribution will still be banned in Bolivia, Mr. Morales says. If Washington were to respond to coca decriminalization by hindering Bolivia's exports of clothing and jewelry to the United States, tens of thousands of families in El Alto, one of Mr. Morales's indigenous power bases, would lose their source of income, and anti-American sentiment would pull Mr. Morales leftward.
Thomas Shannon, assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs, recently told me that the United States aims to eliminate its remaining protectionist measures (which hamper some South American economies by restricting United States imports of their goods). Few Latin Americans have heard about this endeavor. If the goal is to promote development and foster good relations across the hemisphere, eliminating protectionist policies will be far more effective than making coca plantations the paramount issue in Bolivia-United States relations. Fractious politics and ethnic tensions already make for a delicate situation in the Andes. Let's not make it worse.
Unfortunately, the Bush administration tends to see everything not through a prism, but through a hammer and when you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail. All the tough talk about Hugo Chávez has served to strengthen him among his constituency. Tough talk about Evo Morales has strengthened him. If the Bush administration is serious about promoting democracy (and that's a big if), then they'd be well advised to ratchet down the tough talk. It's gotten them nowhere thus far in Latin America.
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