Boz has some good comments regarding the election results in Brazil here although I disagree with him somewhat.
When I was in Brazil in 2002, it was the second time I was in the country while Lula was running for president (the first was 1998). What struck me in 2002 was the number of nice cars that had stickers saying "Agora é Lula!" (Now it's Lula). I certainly saw none of that in 1998.
This year, I believe that things are different. I believe that the votes went largely to each group's base and as Boz notes in that post, the undecided vote went heavily for Alckmin. I believe that Lula's base will always remain solid, but I don't believe that the support he had in 2002 will ever recover. As I'm reluctant to make predictions, I won't. but another revelation of corruption between now and the runoff will only hurt Lula.
On the other hand there's this bit of distressing news:
Brazilians elected Fernando Collor de Mello, the former president impeached in 1992 on charges of corruption, and former Finance Minister Antonio Palocci, who resigned amid graft allegations, to Congress in today's election.
There's more:
The most voted deputy for Sao Paulo state was Paulo Maluf, who is facing charges he helped embezzle $1.8 billion of public money.
In 2005, Maluf and his son Flavio spent 40 days in jail on charges they conspired to overcharge for public works and receive kick-backs from contractors and stashing them in foreign bank accounts. Maluf was a mayor of Sao Paulo from 1969 to 1972 and again in 1993-1996 and was governor of Sao Paulo state from 1979 to 1982.
Now you know why I'm loathe to make predictions.
Brazilian politics: one step forward and two steps to the side...
Posted by: Anna Fagundes | October 03, 2006 at 01:49 PM