Early returns are not encouraging for Lula in terms of avoiding a run-off in his bid to be reelected:
With 43 percent of the ballots counted, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had 47 percent of the vote compared to 43 percent for Sao Paulo state Gov. Geraldo Alckmin, election authorities said. Sen. Heloisa Helena had 7 percent, and lesser-known candidates were splitting the rest.
If these numbers hold, this could be very worrisome for Lula. Recent polling had Lula with a double digit lead over Alckmin. I'd be very interested in seeing what areas of the country have not reported in yet. If the Northeast is not represented significantly in these numbers, then the numbers are very premature. If this includes the Northeast, then Lula should indeed be worried.
The corruption scandals, while not impacting Lula directly, have worn away some of his teflon and revealed the rather testy man underneath. For example, what is wrong with this picture?
This was a debate on Thursday and the only candidate not to appear was Lula:
The campaign highlight was to be a debate by the four candidates here on Thursday night. Hours beforehand, however, Mr. da Silva announced he would not participate, complaining to organizers in a letter that “some adversaries” intended to transform the discussion “into an arena of insults and aggressions, in a game with cards that are marked” against him, the incumbent.
All he needs are the three steel balls to roll around and the Captain Queeg comparison would be complete.
In short, if Lula wins the first round 47% to 43% for Alckmin, he is in deep trouble for the run-off. How deep remains to be seen. In a purely anecdotal example of how he has stumbled, I was speaking with my sister-in-law last night. In 2002 she was a vigorous suppoter of Lula's. I asked her who she was voting for this time. She said Cristovam Buarque.
I'll have more on this tomorrow.
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