Why Lula Will Probably Win

I believe that Geraldo Alckmin's high point was in the first round and it appears likely to me that Lula will be reelected for the following reasons:

• His base is solid, significantly more substantial than Alckmin's and will turn out for him.
• Alckmin's harping on the corruption angle is not moving the undecided voters to his camp.
• I believe that most of the undecided voters, when faced with having to make a choice will choose the familiar.
• There's also this:

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was leading his conservative challenger ahead of Brazil's Oct. 29 presidential runoff vote, according to a survey released Tuesday.

The poll by the Datafolha indicated the leftist incumbent would get 60 percent of the vote compared to former Sao Paulo Gov. Geraldo Alckmin's 40 percent.

Datafolha interviewed 7,133 registered voters in 348 cities and towns between Oct.16-17. The margin of error was 2 percentage points.

A previous poll, released on Oct. 11, showed Silva 56 percent and Alckmin with 44 percent.

The protest against Lula appears to have taken place in the first round. Alckmin, who is referred to as "picole de chuchu" (i.e. something extraordinarily bland) has not been able to generate more support. As indicated above, the numbers have only gotten worse for Alckmin.  Barring an October surprise, count on Lula getting reelected.

Comments

[wronski]

There was a lot of mudslinging in this campaign, but the mud flung by Alckmin (corruption, where the dossie money came from, Lula is responsible, etc) did not stick, while the petista mud did (Alckmin will privitize oxygen, cut social spending, etc.).

I think Alckmin made a strategic error by going after Lula so agressively in the first debate, he came off as a bully. At the same time, he keeps talking about lowering taxes, debt and whatnot, and people are bound to wonder were he will get the money from. Since he did not have the balls to state exactly what kind of cuts he would make (none, apparently, the money-raining season being just about to begin), people assumed the worst, prodded by PT.