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« A Plan for the Amazon? | Main | "Ahmadinejad is the Bush of Iran. And Mousavi is the Obama of Iran." »

June 17, 2009

Comments

Akaky

The revolution may be twittered, but the counterrevolution has triggers, and in a contest of raw political power between a laptop and an AK-47 the latter wins nearly all of the time.

reg

Am I reacting to my own biases, or is there some conservative investment in the failure of the pro-Mousavi movement. So far Daniel Pipes has come out "rooting for Ahmidenijad and Danielle Pletka decared the rebellion a failure and the rightwing Mullahs the victors in a NYT editorial. This logic - mostly coming from extreme Zionist neo-cons - is reflected in the head of Mossad also hoping for an Ahmadinejad victory so as not to give credence to the pro-negotiations position and make the most hardline anti-Iran arguments more credible.

Also, I think you know better than your comment - think back to 1989...

Akaky

Reg, the extremes play off of each other; if you like a black and white world, then the coming of Moussavi is a problem. For the Israelis, a more moderate Iran developing nuclear weapons is a problem, as it will encourage the US to put pressure on Jerusalem to negotiate as opposed to using force and will still leave them vulnerable to nuclear attack at the end of the day. The Israelis can only look at the American track record with North Korea to see just how effective negotiations are with a regime intent on getting the bomb. It bodes ill, to say the least. As for "extreme Zionist neo-cons," Reg, if you mean Jews, then just say so. The former term smacks of Newspeak. As for thinking of 1989, I am thinking of it. I am thinking that Gorbachev lost his empire and eventually his state because he lacked the will to hold it together. Deng Xiao-ping lost neither his will, his empire, nor his state that year. The year the Berlin Wall came down was also the year of Tianamen Square, and I think that, unless I am greatly mistaken, the mullahs and the Revolutionary Guards are prepared to stay in power by any means necessary, even if it means wading through streets filled with blood.

reg

"As for 'extreme Zionist neo-cons,' Reg, if you mean Jews, then just say so."

I would say so if I meant Jews. My point has little or nothing to do with Jews. I mean extreme Zionist neo-cons. Or is it it forbidden to name such a bird ? Have you considered that it might actually be "Newspeak" to claim that when one is talking about a particular ideological formation - one which most Jewish people disagree with, incidentally - that to even mention their existence is sneaky anti-semitism or some such ? This is a thinly veiled attempt to shut down debate about the neo-cons' ties to Likud, a foreign political party, or question some of the extemities of Zionism - or even some fundamental premises of the Zionist project for that matter, which have become increasingly dubious over the decades ("save haven against ant-Semitism for the Jewish people" - uh, how has that turned out ???? - or territorial claims based on the Torah, which is crazy on the face or it.)

My sons self-identify as Jews for what its worth and are part of a large, tightly-knit family on their mother's side that ranges from Lubavitcher to "lefty" and is steeped in the legacy of early militant Zionism and they happen to agree with me on this stuff. And my general perspective on what Israel needs to do to move closer to some possibility of fruitful negotiations is commonplace among Jewish-Americans. And Israelis for that matter. Zionism was a come-lately ideology among Jews - very much an extreme minority view until it gained legitimacy via the Holocaust - but ironically it has perpetuated, rather than elimiinated, the feeling among a large populace of Jewish people that they are facing an existential threat.

Also, Iran is hardly North Korea. Which is why both your point about negotiations and your point about demonstrations are both dubious. The comparison to the Chinese may be closer in some respects, and nobody in their right mind would argue that China poses a serious nuclear threat to either us or its neighbors and that it must be disarmed and dealt with by confrontation. Among other things, that kind of hysteria would be disastrous for WalMart.

reg

Just another thought, even given "worst case" - the Tienamien Square events undoubtedly had a major impact on China and were signals that much had already radicallychanged in that country from any effectively totalitarian social system. Think back to China circa 1969, when whatever turmoil existed was over extreme Maoism versus traditional bureaucratic communism. As for Gorbachev, he was dismissed the way many neo-cons currently dismiss Mousavi - actually they're mostly the same people who were making those arguments that it was all window-dressing back then.

Tambopaxi

I'm for Mousavi and his backers. Some pundits maintain that there are really no differences between him and Ahmadinejad. This makes no sense on the face of it; if there were no differences between these two men, we wouldn't see the masses of people out in the streets with green hands and wristbands. It's clear to me that the Iranian populace has had it with the system of government that's held over there for the last 30 years. What's not clear is where the changes will ultimately take the country; I would bet, though, that it won't be as religiously conservative a country as it is now..

To the extent that Iran becomes a more moderate country, it will undercut Israeli efforts to portray the country as a danger to Israel and therefore, a danger to the U.S.

That's fine by me.

The whole Iran thing is just another Israeli attempt to throw red herrings in front of the USG and the American public so as to distract Americans from the continuing and worsening disgrace of the West Bank settlements, Gaza, and so on. Just in case no one's clear on Israel, its intentions, and its attitudes toward the States, yesterday Israeli Foreign Minister Lieberman told SecState Clinton, no, we're not going to stop settlement growth, and that's that.

Well, ok, since we're being frank, here's what I think: Israel and its policies towards the Palestinians have been wrong from the get-go, going back to 1948. Throwing people off of their land and doing that as an on-going, long term policy is just plain wrong, morally wrong. Still, I like a lot of other Americans, rooted for the gutsy, feisty Israelis in the years running up to '67 for a lot of reasons, collective guilt/apologies for the Holocaust, vicarious pleasure in seeing white European types give it to the "ragheads", whatever, we backed these guys through thick and thin.

Beginning in '67, though, and since then, without let up, the Israelis have taken the wrong road, in terms of the settlements, the various Lebanese invasions, Gaza, spying on the U.S., stealing nuclear secrets and materials, the U.S.S. Liberty, etc., the walls, and more walls, and so on, sin fin. Year after gradual year, they've slowly become the bad guys, repeat, the bad guys.

The end result to this date is that we've got a small country bent on becoming the South Africa of the 21st century, and worst of all, from an American perspective, is that it considers itself to be - and is perceived to be, by the rest of the world - the be America's best friend in the Middle East - and it charges us billions of dollars each for year for that dubious distinction.

The saddest thing of all, though, is that Israel and its policies (and our supportive relationship with those policies) has damaged us morally and damaged our standing in the rest of the world. Israel is wrong, and has been wrong for many years, in its policies and its actions towards the Palestinian people and Arabs in general.

Still, the Israelis been extremely skillful in fooling Americans in general into thinking that the suicide bombers, Hezbollah, Hamas and all the other botched, half-baked, inchoate attempts of the Arabs to fight the Israelis, is a racist, anti-Semitic, anti-Western plot to destroy a country that's white, non-Islamic (and therefore, just like us, in a clash of races, religions and culture, so therefore we HAVE to be allies!). The Israeli approach (we're just like you, so we're the good guys!) has played well for years, as i say, but over time people like me (and Jimmy Carter, it seems)have begun to realize that we're backing the bad guys, the wrong side in all of this, not because the other side is a bunch of angels, but because the other side isn't busy throwing an entire people off of its land and killing 25, 30, or 50 of them for every Israeli lost in seizing those lands.

Where I come out is here: I want a divorce from Israel. If Netanyahu, Lieberman, et al, want to go on with their disgraceful crushing of a people, that's their business. But we, the U.S., and the USG should no longer have anything to do with these bad guys; we should cut all aid to Israel immediately and vote against them from now on in all UN resolutions against Israeli actions and policies. Sadly, we've been on the wrong side of the moral fence for a long time on the Israeli problem, and it's high time that we get on the right side of that fence.

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