I believe that this article in The Economist offers a very sensible understanding as to the core of the problem that Rio de Janeiro faces with drug gangs:
A further reason for Rio’s spectacular violence is that it has three large, competing drug factions, whereas in other big cities (including the largest, São Paulo) one gang is dominant. A recent study from Rio de Janeiro state’s government on the economics of the local drug business suggests that, because of this competition, far from living like characters in an MTV hip-hop video, Rio’s dealers are operating at “close to break-even”.
Using a conservative estimate for total annual drugs sales in the city, of R$316m ($182m), the study reckons that after buying the product from wholesalers, employing a sales force and investing in capital (guns,mainly), Rio’s dealers make combined annual profits of R$27m ($15m). The wage structure within the factions appears to be surprisingly flat, far more so than in the American gang analysed in 2000 by two academics, Steven Levitt and Sudhir Venkatesh. Rio’s dealers seem to be an exception to Brazil’s national picture of unequal income distribution.
Before the recent violence, some analysts had suggested that stretched finances were leading drug gangs to co-operate in some operations. But the more standard response to this situation is to invade a neighbour’s turf. This is what happened on October 17th, when members of the Comando Vermelho poured into an area controlled by the Amigos dos Amigos, and the shooting started.
In addition, this article is a sensible take-a-deep-breath moment:
In areas of the city like Ipanema, Copacabana and Lagoa, where many of the Olympic events will take place and where most visitors will be based, the crime of the favelas seems a world away.
I walked the length of Ipanema and Copacabana beaches to watch kids playing beach football and foot volley, but when I got to the stretch of the Avenida Atlantica outside the opulent Copacabana Palace Hotel, my heart sank.
Six youths, three white, three black, were sitting in a line on the pavement, hands on their heads, faces between their knees.
I guessed they were a gang of pickpockets from a favela. I looked for the police who had rounded them up. But there were no police.
A woman approached and handed me a flier. The boys were part of an urban dance troupe, she said.
They were publicising a performance to commemorate the killings of a group of children by a police murder squad 16 years ago.
Not pickpockets then. Not criminals. Not a security risk. Just another sign Brazil is embracing the 21st century with verve and optimism.
As I've written before, I've been to Rio several times. I've used good judgment about where I go and when I go there. I'm careful about what I show about myself. Granted, it helps that I speak the language fluently, and usually stay alert - a trait I refined living in New York during the 1980's.
The Pan Am Games went well in 2007. Jacques Rogge, the president of the IOC has confidence in Brazil.
Time to take a deep breath.
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