Some Possible Winners and Losers in the Resolution of the Honduras Coup

Assuming the agreement reached to end the stalemate in Honduras is approved by congress, there will clearly be some winners and losers in this matter. The list below is by no means an attempt to be definitive and is most assuredly far from complete.

Among the winners:

• The OAS. Yes it lumbered and didn't move at a speed fast enough to satisfy some or meddled to the consternation of those opposed to Zelaya, but it unified its members and didn't flinch.
• Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Much in the way the OAS didn't please everyone, neither did President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton. Nevertheless, they didn't cave into demands from the paleocon right and the lunatic fringe in the media to accept the coup.
• Lula. Brazil's president's vigorous leadership on the issue was a model for the region: unwavering, but not bombastic; providing support behind the scenes (e.g., the Brazilian embassy for Zelaya's refuge), while maintaining diplomatic pressure was a sign of true diplomatic skill, a trait common in Brazil, arguably Latin America's most skilled diplomats.
• The people of Honduras, who get to hold their elections without the taint of the this event weighing on them.
• The people of the Americas. Coups won't be tolerated in the region, no matter how one seeks to rationalize them.

Among the losers:

• Roberto Micheletti. Notwithstanding claims that Zelaya would not be restored (a claim that persists, despite the pressure that remains and the clear text of the agreement,), Micheletti clearly felt the pressure and gave in.
• The paleocon right. Jim DeMint's knickers must be in a serious twist now. For a taste of the wackiness, read this one in the comments to the Mary Anastacia O'Grady opinion piece linked to above. 
• Honduras' business community. In addition to the loss of income, they now look like coup mongers.

It is not yet a done deal, but it's looking good. Stay tuned.

Comments

[Tambopaxi]

Randy,

I disagree with you.

The real winner in Honduras was, and has been, the Honduran Constitution, which prohibits any/any moves on the part of the Executive to succeed himself/herself.

Another winner(s) are all/all the other branches of the Honduran government which adhered to that Constitution and held Zelaya in place as a one time President.

Another winner is the pueblo Hondurenio, which no longer runs the risk of having Zelaya as a long term President.

I agree with you that President Obama's team achieved something in knocking heads and getting the negotiators to sign the Guaymuras Accord. Clumsy, half-baked, and late, but it's something.

The true loser in this are Zelaya and his backers. Whether the Honduran Congress actually lets Zelaya come back or not, and under what circumstances, remains to be seen, but it's crystal clear that he's not going to be holding any Constitutional Assemblies, ever, much less succeed himself. I don't have any doubt that there will be more street violence in the days to come, but equally, Zelaya's days are numbered - literally. And that's good for Honduras, as I've said.

More in another comment, later...