Beautiful Horizons

it's All in the Timing

Boz asks some good questions about Brazil and Lula:

Is it Brazil? Or is it Lula? Does Brazil get this seat because they are a rising regional and global power with real political, economic and diplomatic influence? Or does Lula sit there because he's a global rockstar, someone whose sheer personal presence seems to be a force on the international diplomatic stage?

Yes, Brazil now has real political, economic and diplomatic influence. For years Brazil has had the canniest diplomatics in Latin America, if not the entire hemisphere. The economic credibility started to come into focus when inflation was successfully tamed in the 1990's and has been generally improving since, with an occasional hiccup. The current decade has been about the best and Lula's leadership is a significant part of the reason.

The political influence has developed as a result of the improved economic influence as well as Lula's ability to deal successfully with leaders across the political spectrum.

So the short answer is probably all of the above.

Idiocy From the Times

I am not familiar with Dilma Rouseff, Lula's Chief of Staff profiled here in Sunday's New York Times. Her predecessor, Jose Dirceu, a shrewd, albeit slimy political operative was more visible and got more attention, even before his resignation under allegations of vote buying.

Nevertheless, while I believe that there is legitimate concern about her running for president under the PT banner with a cancerous tumor just having been remived from her chest, there is an underlying core of idiocy in this article and I think it is a classic example of Alexei Barrionuevo's poor journalism.

Inartful, But Largely Correct

Lula's recent comments blaming the worldwide economic crisis on "white people with blue eyes" was a bit inartful and unfortunately, serves as red meat for his harshest critics. For the record, I'm white and have blue eyes, but I'm not offended.

If you digs a little deeper into the metaphor, you realize what he meant: that the crisis was largely caused by the financial world's best: those who have extolled the virtues of the unfettered market,while ignoring its dangers; those who claimed expertise in the business world, - and often had the credentials to back it up - but lacked the basic sense of good judgment and let themslves be ruled by one of mankind's basest instincts: greed.

Lula on Fareed Zakaria GPS

Right here:

Lula Interview

Fareed Zakaria interviewed Lula in Newsweek and it's a good read. There are two important takeaways fom this. Here's the first:

In six years we have lifted 20 million people out of poverty and into the middle class, brought electricity into 10 million households and increased the minimum wage every year. All without hurting anyone, without insulting anyone, without picking fights.

Unlike someone leading a country just north of Brazil, perhaps?

Then there's this:

You are regarded as a great symbol of democracy in the Americas. And yet some people say you have been quiet as Hugo Chávez has destroyed democracy in Venezuela. Why not speak out? If Brazil wants a greater role in the world, wouldn't that be one part, to stand for certain values?
Well, maybe we cannot agree with Venezuelan democracy, but no one can say that there is no democracy in Venezuela. He has been through five, six elections. I've only had two.

He has gangs out on the street. This is not real democracy.
Look, we have to respect the local cultures, the political traditions of each country. Given that I have 84 percent support in the public-opinion polls, I could propose an amendment to the Constitution for a third term. I don't believe in that. But Chávez wanted to stay … I believe that changing the president is important for the strengthening of democracy itself. [my emphasis]

Much is made by his opponents as to Lula's lack of formal education, but one thing is clear: he knows the value of institutions for the purpose of effecting permanent change as opposed to someone sho graduated from Venezuela's oldest military academy and who believes that the ongoing rule of one man is essential for effecting permanent change.

What Lula Said

Change is needed and it appears to be on its way:

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Monday called on the United States to end its economic embargo of Cuba, saying it makes no sense in the 21st Century.

Speaking at a Wall Street Journal-sponsored investment forum in New York, Silva also pointed to El Salvador's presidential election on Sunday as evidence democracy has spread across Latin America, warranting a reevaluation of the United States' relationship with the region.

At the end of his speech, Silva said the Cuba embargo is widely opposed across the region.

''There is nothing any more from the political perspective, from sociological perspective, from the humanitarian perspective that impedes the reestablishment of relations between the United States and Cuba,'' Silva said. ``It's not possible in the 21st Century to make policy looking toward the 20th Century -- let's think about looking toward the 22nd Century.''

There's also this:

Silva said he had been in touch with Latin American presidents and all were in favor of working together to forge a new relationship with the U.S. under the Obama administration.

''All of them want to work in partnership with the U.S. All of them are expecting the U.S. to establish a new relationship, a constructive relationship not based on political interference,'' Silva said, mentioning Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and Bolivia's Evo Morales as leaders he had spoken to.

''The United States of North America has the obligation and the extraordinary opportunity to re-establish a new relationship with Latin America,'' he said.

It's hard to imagine anything like this happening with either Bush or McCain in power.

Manda Bala

Jader Barbalho is probably one of the most corrupt politicians in Brazil and as is all to typical in politics in Brazil, his corruption notwithstanding, he has managed to hold every elected office except for president.

São Paulo has what essentially amounts to a mini-industry centered around kidnapping the rich:

• There are more urban private helicopters in São Paulo than anywhere else and it's not just a result of the horrible traffic.
• At least one plastic surgeon - and I would imagine there are others - specializes in ear reconstruction as ears are frequently cut off as proofs of life for kidnap victims.
• There is  thriving industry for private car armoring.
• Specific police units are dedicated against kidnapping.

What do these two have in common? As the film Manda Bala attempts to make the argument, the rich steal from the poor and the poor steal the rich. While I find the argument plausible, Jason Kohn, the director of the film seems to be more enamored of the lurid aspects of the story than making a cogent argument.

One of the methods by which it is alleged that Jader Barbalho supped at the public trough was through a program called Sudam, a development agency in the Amazon region. One of the programs involved farming of frogs for consumption. Instead of an extensive analysis as to how Barbalho may have done this, we are treated to a detailed examination of frog cultivation and processing, followed by ending shots of people eating rã milenesa (deep fried, breaded frog). Yes people eat frogs in Brazil. So what?

Instead of a detailed examination as to why the poor kidnap the rich, we are given a brief interview with a kidnapper living in a favela in São Paulo who feels no remorse for his actions, while a great deal of time is expended in showing how replacement ears are molded from rib cartilage and fit into the victim's skin.

There's a good film in there waiting to get out and there is a need for a film or films addressing these issues. Unfortunately, Manda Bala is not it.

Run-Off Results in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro

Apparently a fair and relatively positive profile of Fernando Gabeira in Sunday's New York Times was not enough to get him elected Mayor of Rio de Janeiro, as he lost a close runoff with Eduardo Paes, the candidate of the PT, the party founded by Lula.

What is interesting was where Gabeira's greatest support came from:

Just a month ago, few political analysts gave Mr. Gabeira much of a chance. But a campaign backed by many of Rio’s wealthy businessmen and intellectual elites has helped him make a surprising surge in recent weeks.

Powerful men like Eike Batista, the billionaire mining magnate, have thrown their support behind Mr. Gabeira

I would have been torn as to who to vote for. The article notes Gabeira's even temperment and clear positions, traits rare in Brazilian politics, especially at that level.

I am glad, however, Marta Suplicy lost in her bid to regain the mayor's office in Sao Paulo - and lost big. I have never been a fan of hers - sha has always struck me as being more about show than substance -  and under current mayor, Gilberto Kassab's leadership, as Mr. Trend notes, violence and crime rates in both Sao Paulo city and state have declined. Sao Paulo is better off without Suplicy.

Global Branding

You have to love politics in Brazil, especially on the local level, at least when the politicians don't take themselvs too seriously. Off year elections in Brazil, such as the one taking place next month are nationwide contests for city council members and mayors. Iara, one of Mercia's cousins ran for city council on the Green Party in Belo Horizonte in 2002. Her campaign literature referred to as Iarinha dos Gansos, literally, Little Iara of the Geese. Iara managed to get herself on a popular television program called Domingao do Faustao (literally, Faustaos Big Sunday) that showed her taking her pet geese out for a walk in Belo Horizonte, a city of close to three million. She didn't win the election, but for those of you who know a bit of Brazilian slang, suffice it to say that we had fun with the nickname "Iarinha dos Gansos."

On what may be a more successful bit of political branding there is this:

With Barack Obama on the ballot in at least eight local elections in Brazil, you might think the Democratic presidential candidate is keeping his options open in case John McCain winds up in the White House.

Not at all. Due to a quirk in Brazilian electoral law, candidates can put any name they want on the ballot, as long as it isn't offensive. At least eight candidates have chosen to be known as "Barack Obama" in the Oct. 5 elections.

The Illinois senator is hugely popular in Brazil. The prospect of a black U.S. president has generated enthusiasm across the country, where more people call themselves black than anywhere except Nigeria.

No word on whetehr anyone wanted to put John McCain's name on the ballot in Brazil.

Intelligence Run Amok in Brazil

Both Boz and Greg make note ofthe scandal that seems to be brewing in Brazil regarding allegations of spying by Brazil's intelligence agency, ABIN on Supreme Court Justices and senators, recording their private conversations via wiretaps.

The article Greg links to seems to lay the blame on freelancers as does General Jorge Felix, who has blamed both the Federal Police and ABIN agents. That certainly seems like a likely set of circumstances, but there has to be not merely a scapegoat caught here, but a thorough housecleaning. One wonders if those ousted will be content to go quietly. I'm guessing they won't.

Greg's point here is spot on: "Intelligence is an area that is crying out for democratic reform." Absolutely. Rogue operators within the intelligence service are a cancer. Housecleaning and vetting those in power is the cure.